Tag Archives: $SPX
Like Taking Candy From a Baby
you might recall on Saturday June 2 following the horrible NFP number that saw a 32 point drop (-2.4%) on the S&P 500 and a bond market spike to 1.45% all-time low yield, we tried to keep everything in perspective … Continue reading
Don’t Wake Up in a Roadside Ditch
When your investment portfolio has a negative annual returns for over a decade you get mad and when you get mad you turn on the TV and listen to CNBC. When you listen to CNBC you hear a lot of … Continue reading
The Definition of Insanity
After Friday’s disastrous employment report the markets continued the trend we had been monitoring since March in what looked to be a climax type of move with treasuries making new all time highs, closing both the 10YR and 30YR at … Continue reading
Slicing and Dicing
On April 17th in Like a Hot Knife Through Warm Butter we posited that the $SPX was tracing out a B wave retracement that was chopping up shorts and confusing many market participants. We have seen some bears in the … Continue reading
Thinking Like a Crook
the blogosphere and chartTweets are all seeing the same thing. The SPX is in a rising channel and the make-or-break is above 1398 or below 1375. If everyone sees the same thing, chances are its not happening and thinking like … Continue reading
Time to Pay Attention
as we approached the end of Q1 on 3/28 we wrote in the Internal Conflict Inside the Fed’s Bubble of Fear that: Meanwhile, stocks continue to rally making it hard to short but even harder to buy. For bonds its … Continue reading
the Internal Conflict Inside the Fed’s Bubble of Fear
so what’s going on here? Stocks have rallied to new highs, supposedly on better economic data, but on very little volume. Bonds got crushed in a violent FOMC unwind yet held and have rebounded. The specs are still shorting a … Continue reading
The Market’s Five Stages of Grief
We are big believers that market sentiment is a key driver of price over intermediate cycles and this rally since the Oct bottom has been met with some of the most negative sentiment we can recall in recent memory. Our … Continue reading
Gas Prices and the Real Equity Risk Premium
One of the most widely cited relative value market metrics is the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) which essentially is the $SPX earnings yield (inverse of P/E) less the10YR Treasury yield. At the October 4th low the ERP had reached one … Continue reading
Inverted Risk-On/Off Unwind Update
in last weekend’s Inverted Risk-On/Risk-Off Update we said, The coming week also sees the quarterly expiration and with both equity and bond markets at critical junctures there could be some unexpected volatility and thus serious pain for this inverted risk trade … Continue reading
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