Tag Archives: Bernanke

The Definition of Insanity

After Friday’s disastrous employment report the markets continued the trend we had been monitoring since March in what looked to be a climax type of move with treasuries making new all time highs, closing both the 10YR and 30YR at … Continue reading

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Fighting Fire with a Flamethrower

last week’s big story about the JPM $2b trading loss highlights what we perceive to be a major risk factor in the market and banking system, that is the consensus and regulators are still focused on the wrong risks.  There … Continue reading

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Stock v Flow – Bernanke v Gross

on Monday we addressed the Stock v Flow debate and posited that while the Fed believes its the stock that matters, what really matters is what the market believes. Monday we stated: Ultimately it doesn’t matter what the Fed believes … Continue reading

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Lowering the Gap and Raising the Bar

yesterday’s FOMC minutes revealed a very interesting development and potentially hawkish policy shift when the committee lowered their assessment of the output gap (emphasis ours). In the economic projection prepared for the March FOMC meeting, the staff revised up its … Continue reading

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Gas Prices and the Real Equity Risk Premium

One of the most widely cited relative value market metrics is the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) which essentially is the $SPX earnings yield (inverse of P/E) less the10YR Treasury yield.  At the October 4th low the ERP had reached one … Continue reading

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US Stock Market History 101

This morning @KeithMcCullough of Hedgeye Risk Management tweeted:  US Stock market history 101:  as inflation expectations rise, you get multiple compression #P/E We agree 100% w Keith and think this concept is one of the most misunderstood among investors, analysts … Continue reading

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