Tag Archives: $TY_F

Pre-NFP Risk-On/Risk-Off Positioning Update

we’ve been away from posting for a couple of weeks, one because we have seen the market unfold exactly as planned with bonds rallying to new highs as we stated in the Internal Conflict Inside the Fed’s Bubble of Fear … Continue reading

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Fighting Fire with a Flamethrower

last week’s big story about the JPM $2b trading loss highlights what we perceive to be a major risk factor in the market and banking system, that is the consensus and regulators are still focused on the wrong risks.¬† There … Continue reading

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Risk in Risk-Free

while the $AAPL love fest is going on after hours and the $SP_F is higher looking to trap shorts tomorrow morning we think investors need to be aware of the potential risk in the $TY_F contract especially in light of … Continue reading

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With the Fed on Deck, Something’s Got to Give

Yesterday in Like a Hot Knife Through Warm Butter we posited the $SPX was setting up for a potentially dangerous corrective move into the .618 retracement of the first leg off the top and that the subsequent decline could be … Continue reading

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Inverted Risk-On/Off Update – Gluttons For Punishment

This week’s CFTC COT report shows our Inverted Risk-On/Off trade as represented by the large speculator’s net position a substantial paring down of the risk-on long $FV_F while re-initiating a material increase in a net short $ES_F position increasing from … Continue reading

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Inverted Risk-On/Off Unwind Update

in last weekend’s Inverted Risk-On/Risk-Off¬†Update we said, The coming week also sees the quarterly expiration and with both equity and bond markets at critical junctures there could be some unexpected volatility and thus serious pain for this inverted risk trade … Continue reading

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