Tag Archives: 10YR

Like Taking Candy From a Baby

you might recall on Saturday June 2 following the horrible NFP number that saw a 32 point drop (-2.4%) on the S&P 500 and a bond market spike to 1.45% all-time low yield, we tried to keep everything in perspective … Continue reading

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The Definition of Insanity

After Friday’s disastrous employment report the markets continued the trend we had been monitoring since March in what looked to be a climax type of move with treasuries making new all time highs, closing both the 10YR and 30YR at … Continue reading

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Fighting Fire with a Flamethrower

last week’s big story about the JPM $2b trading loss highlights what we perceive to be a major risk factor in the market and banking system, that is the consensus and regulators are still focused on the wrong risks.  There … Continue reading

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Time to Pay Attention

as we approached the end of Q1 on 3/28 we wrote in the Internal Conflict Inside the Fed’s Bubble of Fear that:  Meanwhile, stocks continue to rally making it hard to short but even harder to buy.  For bonds its … Continue reading

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it’s because they got the trade wrong

yesterday Bloomberg was reporting the annual ranking of HF manager earnings by AR Magazine and the severity of the 35% drop…   to Average pay for the 25 top earners was $576 million last year, down from $883 million in 2010, … Continue reading

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Gas Prices and the Real Equity Risk Premium

One of the most widely cited relative value market metrics is the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) which essentially is the $SPX earnings yield (inverse of P/E) less the10YR Treasury yield.  At the October 4th low the ERP had reached one … Continue reading

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Yield Curve Intension

in dwelling upon last week’s sterilized QE 3 leak in front of this week’s FOMC we couldn’t help but notice the 2YR yield has broken above its most recent range and is the highest level since the August flight to … Continue reading

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