Who Wins the Game of Long Bond Pong?

The past 4 month 4 point range in the $US_F contract has been truly remarkable.  With a 4 point range off a $140 you aren’t talking about a lot of price volatility going back to last November.  When you have a contracting sideways move it can only mean one thing, at some point it’s going to break out and it’s going to be a big move.  Figuring out which way the long bond impulses out of this consolidation will be the key to trading risk assets over the next 3-6 months and maybe longer.

Chart: Bloomberg

This asset has been lulling you to sleep and while everyone is focused on whether stocks are topping they aren’t paying attention to the implications of a triangle breakout in the contract.   in either direction….  prepare for handle check..


About exantefactor

capital market veteran of over 15 years covering multiple asset classes. Focused on analyzying markets ex ante (before the event).
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